Week 12 - UGA Preview

This preview won’t be as thorough as usual. My apologies. I know all my readers (both of you) will be devastated. But, its Thanksgiving, and I’ve been “relaxing”.

Also, you may have noticed no Duke review happened. I may or may not get that up at some point. The gist is we started flat and never really played inspired football. Even still, we beat them worst than the final score indicated. We just found ways to keep it close. Oh well, it was a win.

But, enough of that. On to the real game.

Georgia may be the best team we have played all season. If you believe the computers, they are the best team we have played all season.

And they appear to me to be playing their best football late in the season (doesn’t it seem like this always happens with them?).

Let’s take a look to see just exactly how the computers view UGA and GT. I’ll use Sagarin. Below is a chart showing how UGA actually did in its games, how Sagarin thinks UGA should have done based on the rest of the season, and how GT would have done according to Sagarin.

The reason I include how UGA “Should have” done according to Sagarin is that it allows you to see where UGA’s good and bad games occurred. So you can see whether they really are peaking.

UGA Opponent	UGA Result	UGA Expected Result	UGA Actual - UGA Expected	GT Expected Result Against Same Opponent
Boise St.	Loss by 14	Lose by 6	-8	Lose by 16
South Carolina	Loss by 3	Win by 4	-7	Lose by 6
Coastal Carolina	Win by 59	Win by 43	+16	Win by 33
Ole Miss	Win by 14	Win by 21	-7	Win by 11
Miss. St.	Win by 14	Win by 12	+2	Win by 2
Tennessee	Win by 8	Win by 9	-1	Lose by 1
Vanderbilt	Win by 5	Win by 8	-3	Lose by 2
Florida	Win by 4	Win by 7	-3	Lose by 3
New Mexico St.	Win by 47	Win by 30	+17	Win by 20
Auburn	Win by 38	Win by 16	+22	Win by 6
Kentucky	Win by 9	Win by 25	-16	Win by 15

Coastal Carolina and New Mexico St. appear to be clear outliers. So I’ll discount them. Clearly, UGA can perform better than expected when they have physically overwhelming talent. Doesn’t tell us much.

If you ignore the Coastal Carolina game, then UGA started the season with 3 of its 4 worst performances of the season. Then they settled in and played about as expected for a few games, before exploding against Auburn for by far UGA’s best game of the season.

So they went from bad to average to really good.

Of course, then they played their worst game of the season against Kentucky. Maybe they were flat. Who knows? But up until that game, I see a clear UGA trend of playing better as the season progresses.

Also of note, GT allegedly would be 6-5 against UGA’s schedule. Although, Auburn, Miss. St., Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida would be very close games. We would be 4-2 in decisive games with 5 close ones. For whatever that is worth.

Here is a look at the same chart from GT’s perspective:

GT Opponent	GT Result	GT Expected Result	GT Actual - GT Expected	UGA Expected Result Against Same Opponent
Western Carolina	Win by 42	Win by 35	+7	Win by 45
Middle Tenn St.	Win by 28	Win by 22	+6	Win by 32
Kansas	Win by 42	Win by 16	+26	Win by 26
UNC	Win by 7	Win by 2	+5	Win by 12
NC St.	Win by 10	Win by 1	+9	Win by 11
Maryland	Win by 5	Win by 13	-8	Win by 23
Virginia	Lose by 3	Lose by 1	-2	Win by 9
Miami	Lose by 17	Lose by 9	-8	Win by 1
Clemson	Win by 14	Tie	+14	Win by 10
Virginia Tech	Lose by 11	Lose by 3	-8	Win by 7
Duke	Win by 7	Win by 10	-3	Win by 20

So, you’ll notice we are playing worse as the season progresses. Not good. And I don’t really have any idea why. But its a clear trend. We did better than expected in our first 5 games, and worse than expected in the rest except the Clemson game.

You’ll also notice some things that may surprise some people. Supposedly, we were supposed to tie Clemson at home. In other words, Clemson was not really all that good.

We were also supposed to lose by 1 and 9 to UVA and Miami on the road. Maybe those were not the “upsets” we thought they were. In hindsight, those results maybe were fairly accurate.

Also of note, supposedly UGA would be unbeaten against our schedule. My guess is they would have slipped up and lost to somebody. Miami, UVA, Clemson and VT all would have been losable games, and I bet they would have lost at least one. But they probably would have a record better than 8-3.

Sagarin predicts that UGA wins this game by 7 points. Unfortunately, that is basically in line with what I expect. I would like to be able to make a good argument for why we win, but I just don’t see it.

UGA’s run defense is MUCH improved and very good. I am holding out hope that they are still not very disciplined, so maybe we can have some success with the option and forcing them to bust assignments. But they will be hard to block.

They are also the best running attack (probably) that we have faced all season. Their O-Line may not be much better than UNC, UVA or VT, but its probably at least as good. We will have our hands full trying to stop their rushing attack. And of course, they can play action and have Aaron Murray throwing it, who is one of the better QB’s we have seen this season.

We will need a very good effort from our defense.

And special teams has the potential to be disastrous, per usual.

In short, we will need to play a very good game in all phases in order to win.

On the plus side, its a rivalry game. Many people say “in a rivalry game, you can throw out the records and the stats... none of it matters”. And they say that for good reason. In a rivalry game, teams get renewed passion. It does not really matter if you have been playing poorly lately because you lost a couple of games and threw away a chance at the conference title. In a rivalry game, its pretty easy to forget everything else. Winning makes the whole season better, no matter what else is happening.

Additionally, UGA may be distracted somewhat by the SEC title game they have next week.

Finally, they probably expect to win. So we may have a motivation advantage.

We will need all of those advantages to come true, and still play a good game in order to pull the upset.

My official prediction, sadly, is a close game that UGA wins in the end, just like the last 3 years.

Hope I am wrong.

Let’s Go Jackets!!

Week 11 Duke Preview

I’m showing up flat this week. This might be the worst blog post all year.

Hoping to take the place of the team, so they don’t show up flat.

If we avoid that, I think we win. Duke is better than usual this year, but still not very good.

Additionally, they are a pretty good matchup for us. They don’t run the ball very well, at least not with much power. They have a pretty good passing attack, but our pass defense (usually) is pretty good against the pass.

Their defense is not real good. I would say that means we will score a lot, but I think we have proven by this point that all that matters is how we play. We can score on good defenses if we play well, and we get shut down by most anybody if we play poorly. Are you small, have lots of injuries, and terrible against the run? Who cares? On paper, we should kill you, but we make no sense, so you might really slow us down. Are you giving up 30+ points to everyone you play? Well, keep the faith, you might shut us down.

Meanwhile, 3 of our top 4 scoring performances in conference have come against UNC, Clemson and VT. Generally, 3 pretty good defenses, and 2 of those are top 10 teams.

Like I said, our offense makes no sense. At least, in terms of how we do compared to who we play. Its all about how we play.

With that said, Duke is not a good defense, so if we play well, one would think we would have little trouble scoring 35 or 40.

Here is hoping we are not flat, and we go into the UGA game 8-3.

For some reason, I have a good feeling about us being 8-3 when UGA is 9-2...

Week 10 VT Review

That hurt. Probably one of the tougher losses to take in recent memory.

It was so tough for me because it almost certainly decided the Coastal, and we really had a good chance to win it. I bet you at the end of the season, the record will show that a 6-2 GT team with a win over VT would have been playing in the ACC Championship game.

The most frustrating part is that we had chances, several chances, to establish a pretty good lead and take control of the game.

We just did not execute.

In terms of mistakes, this game was a lot like Clemson last year. We made a bunch, and most of them were not really forced by VT.

The difference in this game and the Clemson game last year is that in this game, when we were not making crucial mistakes, we actually played pretty well most of the time. Against Clemson last year, we generally did not play real well and we also mixed in several catastrophic mistakes.

To be fair, both teams made mistakes (Which happens in every football game.) VT had several stupid penalties and a lost fumble in GT’s red zone. So they made some big mistakes.

But, most of VT’s mistakes did not occur at critical points. They did not, for example, commit a personal foul after sacking our QB on 3rd and 19, giving up an automatic first down when it would have been 4th and more than 20.

I would say that VT simply had a good game, and we just had one of those games where we were not able to focus. But, VT has made a habit of doing this. At some point, you have to stop saying they had a good game, and just say this is what they do. I think its pretty clear that Beamer and the rest of VT’s coaching staff are simply good at getting their players to play smart, efficient football. Their players understand the situation, and they simply do not make many critical mistakes. They might hit a guy a half step out of bounds on 1st down (which they did, giving us a personal foul after a 7 yard run). But they rarely risk that kind of hit on third down. They know what they are doing. They understand the situation, and play accordingly.

We did a few things that were somewhat out of character. For example we missed a ton of tackles because we decided to spend long stretches tackling high and trying to strip the ball rather than wrapping up legs. But, for the most part, I thought we played well enough to win. Limit the mistakes to a more normal amount, and GT probably wins that game and the Coastal.

I do have to give VT credit. They executed very well, and made some really great plays at key moments. In particular, Thomas made some great throws, and their WR’s made some really excellent catches.

Well, no need to dwell on this game too much. I’ll just list the crucial mistakes and let that be that. We are still a very young team and I expect us to be even better next year. We return almost everybody. If we were good enough this year to challenge for the Coastal, I see no reason why we would not challenge for it next year. Hopefully next year, we can make the key plays we need to make.

Anyway, the mistakes:

1) The entire second series. After starting off just about as well as you could ask for, we get the ball back leading 7-0 near the end of the first quarter and just shoot ourselves in the foot repeatedly. (To be fair, VT made a stupid error of their own to give up the TD, jumping offsides on 4th and 5. If they don’t do that, we probably call timeout and take a FG.) Anyway, on this possession, if we can move the ball and eat up some more clock, at the very least we play field position and get closer to taking a lead into halftime. If we score, we can take a 14-0 lead with what probably would have been less than 10 minutes remaining in the half. Instead, what we do is this:

First Down: Tevin misses a read (triple option, blocked well, they have one cornerback to take both Tevin and the pitch man. Tevin, for some reason, pitches immediately, making the cornerback’s decision easy. If Tevin holds the ball and makes the defender make a decision, we probably get 15 or 20 yards on this play. Very strange decision, pitching when the only defender is more than 5 yards away.)

Second Down: Fumbled snap, falls on it for no gain.

Third Down: Orwin drops a very easy catch that would have been a first down.

The significance of that third down drop can’t be understated. We were backed up inside our ten, and the resulting punt from our end zone gave VT the ball at our 35 yard line. If Orwin makes that catch, we have the ball at our 25 or maybe further, and even if we end up punting, VT would at least have to go on a real drive to score. That effectively is a turnover. Orwin makes the catch, GT ball at 25. Orwin drops it, VT ball at 35. Only a 10 yard difference there. Pretty much like throwing an interception downfield.

So essentially, this drive was basically a gift to VT. They did nothing to stop us on any of the 3 plays, and yet we gained 0 yards, at a juncture in the game when we had a real chance to take serious control. Instead, we use up no time really at all, and put our defense in terrible position. VT quickly scores, and we effectively threw away our great start.

(By comparison, in the 3rd quarter when VT faced a 3rd and long from inside its own 10 yard line, their WR, Coale I think?, made a great, acrobatic bobbling catch for a 30 yard gain. That great execution, by both QB and WR, allowed VT to avoid punting from its own end zone. They successfully execute a 30 yard deep pass into good coverage. We fail to execute a 10 yard wide open crossing route. Sigh.)

2) Busted coverage assignment on the ensuing drive. Even after the above mistakes, we could have held VT to a FG. Its 3rd and 7 from GT’s 20 or so, and we have everybody covered well. They have one WR running a deep route. Our cornerback is running with him, and we have one safety playing in the middle of the field. The corner overplays his WR to the inside, even though he has safety help there. As a result, when the WR cuts outside, our corner gets turned around and does not see Thomas release the ball. If he guarded against the outside cut, as he should have since he had safety help to the inside, Thomas probably does not even throw the ball.

3) Busted Coverage assignment on their second TD. Once again, we force 3rd down and long (this time 3rd and 9) and have a chance to force a FG. I am not sure what coverage we called, but we ended up with 3 guys standing right next to each other in the center of the field on the 2 yard line, watching the ball float over their heads to an open WR in the back of the end zone. Pretty sure Groh did not design that coverage to have 3 guys in the same place.

4) On our ensuing drive, we badly mismanaged the clock. I actually put this mistake on Coach Johnson, which I think is pretty rare. Anyway, once we got inside VT’s 40 yard line, there was around 3 minutes left and we had 3 timeouts. In other words, we have plenty of time. We need to be running as much time off the clock as possible.

Instead, we snap the ball with 18, 15, 12, 12 and 12 seconds on the play clock on 5 consecutive plays. That is a total of 69 seconds. After failing to convert 3rd down from VT’s 25 yard line, there was 1:30 on the clock. We run it down as far as we can, to about 1:00, and call timeout to try a FG. Had we been running the play clock down to 5 seconds, the clock would have been around 45 seconds left. At this point, we could have run the clock down to 15 or 10 seconds to try the FG (yes VT could have called timeout to stop it, but they chose not to do so with the clock at 1:30, and let us run it down to 1:00. I don’t see why they would have called timeout with 45 seconds, given that decision)

Note that with 45 seconds left, had we converted the third down, it is our ball inside VT’s 20 yard line with 3 timeouts. That is probably plenty of time to run 6 plays, especially if we make an effort to get out of bounds, and/or pass the ball some. So we can still make the full effort to score a touchdown.

If VT takes over with under 15 seconds left in the half, they almost certainly take a knee, and we would have been playing prevent defense anyway, so a long TD would have been very unlikely. As it was, with 1:00 left, they decided to try to attack, and of course hit the long TD pass. Our defense should have gotten a stop there, but we did not even need to put them in that position. Poor clock management.

5) Busted Coverage on the long TD pass before the half. Once again, our corner does not know where the safety help is. This time, we have 2 deep safeties, playing the outside of both sides of the field. Our corner overplays the WR faking a deep out, and when the WR cuts inside, he is open for a long pass. This was especially frustrating because in this case the DB was behind the WR, so he was looking down field, staring at the safety. The WR was running right at the safety. So I have no idea why the corner was guarding so heavily against the cut outside.

6) Personal Foul by Attaochu on 3rd and 19, as he is sacking Thomas. Looked like he got frustrated, lost his cool, and punched him. Attaochu said he was trying to punch the ball out. I guess that is possible. If he was, he missed by a significant margin. But maybe he was. It was during a tackle, and he was not exactly under control. If he was trying to punch the ball out, the best I can say is that was stupid to try to do in that situation. The ball was tucked away pretty tightly, the QB was almost down, and he was holding the ball so high that any punch attempt at the ball is likely to hit his shoulder or head. However, based on the video, I would say its more likely he was just trying to punch him. Either way, that was a crucial situation, and you simply have to understand how important getting the ball back is there. As soon as you get him wrapped up, you need to calm down, and basically stop everything. He is not going to drag the pile 20 yards. Nobody should be trying to throw him down or do anything that might possibly draw a personal foul. Just hold him in place, stack him up and wait for the refs to blow the play dead. Incredibly stupid play.

7) Two consecutive major execution errors by Tevin on 3rd and short and 4th and short from our own 30 yard line. I know a lot of people disagreed with Coach Johnson’s decision to go for it. Personally, I loved it. If we punt, and our defense can’t get a stop, VT can drive downfield, eat up almost the rest of the game, and score a TD. They do that, and we have maybe 3 or 4 minutes, maybe less, to come back. This way, its their ball at the 30, they can only eat up maybe 5 minutes at most, and worst case we have 6 or 7 minutes to come back. Only being down a point, it will be a 1 score game either way. So, the down side is not very bad, and you have to figure we’ll convert 4th and less than 1 75% of the time or more.

So, the mistake. Both times, we called the QB follow, where Tevin fakes the dive and follows the B-Back. Both times, Tevin panicked and cut in front of the B-Back. Neither time did VT really jump the play. They only had 1 guy there to hit Tevin. If he waits for the B-Back, and follows him, as the play is designed, I think he easily converts the first down either time. I believe that is why Coach called the same play on 4th down. He saw that it was there on 3rd. And it was. Tevin needs to execute the play the way its designed, not panic and rush it. But he rushed it, and he ran right into the only defender that had a chance to stop him. There were other defenders nearby, but they were not in position to stop Tevin from getting a half yard.

8) After we got the ball back down 34-26, Tevin missed a WIDE open Roddy Jones on a deep seam route. I mean he was wide open. We ran 4 guys on deep routes, and they only had 3 defenders. The safety took the other A-Back, and there was not a guy within 15 yards of Roddy. He might have scored an 80 yard TD, but at the least he gets 25-30 yards and then maybe runs for more. Tevin never saw him. What makes it worse is that, given how VT lined up, Tevin should have figured the corners would take the WR’s, so he should have simply watched the safety, and thrown to the other A-Back. It was fairly apparent that VT was not going to have all 4 covered, based on their pre snap alignment.

Now, I should add, both teams made a bunch more mistakes than this. That is normal. Every game you expect to make 15-20 mistakes at least. That is just football.

I would categorize these mistakes as more egregious, due to their nature, the situation, or both. You simply have to be able to focus in a big game, know the situation, and not blow these plays. VT did it. We did not.

I would say 2 or 3 mistakes of this magnitude are normal for a game. You can’t make 8 and expect to win.

We just have to execute better. I hope its youth. We are a young team, and usually experienced teams execute better than young teams.

Hope we learned from this.

Go Jackets!

Week 10 Preview - VT (Part 2)

And, finally, it is almost time for the unofficial Coastal division Championship.

Every single year that the Coastal division has existed, the winner of the GT-VT has represented the Coastal in the ACC Championship Game.

In fact, most years, the loser of the this game would have won the Coastal had they won the game.

So really, it basically is the Coastal division Champ game.

And don’t look now, but it will probably decide the Coastal again this year.

If VT wins and beats UVA later in the year, they win the Coastal.

If GT wins, beats Duke, and UVA loses once more, GT wins the Coastal.

Technically, UVA still controls its own destiny, but they have to play at FSU and VT still, and I do not think they will win out.

So, in my opinion, this is it, although there will be a few loose ends to tie up after this game.

Both teams are coming off a bye. If you buy into conventional wisdom, you might think that would be disastrous for GT. Teams with a bye week always beat us right?

Well, see my post below. Or don’t, and just take my word for it. The bye week is not that big of a deal.

Virginia Tech may well beat us, but it will be because they are a good team, not because they are off a bye week. (They were off a bye week last year, and we came out blazing, scoring 14 1st quarter points and getting to their 5 yard line in the 2nd quarter before Nesbitt threw a pick and then got injured...)

They are making a number of changes to their defense, many of which have been necessitated by injury.

I have not followed VT and their personnel as well I should have. So I do not know all of the names. But they have injuries to several defensive linemen and linebackers. (where have we heard this before? Hmm... NC State.. Miami... forgive me for not getting real excited).

A couple of things make these injuries not a huge deal. First, the replacements are guys with some experience at those positions (at least if “MaroonBird” from the scout boards is to be trusted... that poster has a detailed description over on the Hive message board, detailing who is moving where and how much they have played there).

Second, Bud Foster is a very good coach, and he consistently gets their defense to perform well regardless of who is playing where, or who they lost from last year, etc.

Third, most of the changes are designed to get more speed on the field. I think Bud Foster is a great defensive coordinator, and I expect he has picked up on the fact that undersized but quick defenses can give us problems. Wake Forest in both 2009 and 2010, NC State in 2010, Maryland and Miami in 2011, etc. These defenses were all relatively small but fast, and in some cases (Miami) they had injuries and replaced some guys with smaller faster players. For example they moved Sean Spence, their extremely fast linebacker who may play safety in the NFL, over to middle linebacker, which typically is played by a bigger, slower player.

The reason undersized speed guys are better suited to defend us is simple. We are not terribly big, and we don’t overpower teams. So, big strong guys are not necessary against us. What you need are guys that avoid cut blocks, and pursue the ball quickly.

Of course, if you have fast guys, it won’t hurt if they are also big and strong. See: Iowa, LSU, some of the Clemson and Miami teams we have faced, etc.

But, the point is you don’t need big and strong. That is why Wake in 2010 had so much success against us even though they could not stop anybody else (yes we eventually won but our offense struggled mightily for 3 quarters).

So, VT will be undersized Thursday night, but I expect a very good effort from them defensively.

If they play us how Bud Foster typically plays us, they will allow us to get some yards, but they do a good job limiting the points.

Here is a look at the past 3 years, their defense against our offense.

Year	GT Average Yards Per Game	GT Yards Against VT	GT Average Points Per Game	GT Points Against VT
2008	372.5	387	24.4	17
2009	422.1	360	33.8	28
2010	407.2	426	26.0	21

So you can see, for the most part, we get our yards against VT but they hold us below our season average.

On the whole though, the game is always very close.

I expect it to be no different this year.

It will be close. Both teams are good teams. Both have had bye weeks to get focused and motivated. Nobody will be tired or flat. Both teams should give a good effort.

I think we win for 2 main reasons. 1 - we are at home. 2 - we are a more complete team.

#2 is only true if we are playing well on special teams and not shooting ourselves in the foot.

That is basically what VT does. They area always good on defense. They play well on special teams, they make few mistakes, and they do enough on offense to get the job done.

This year, actually, VT has not been so good on special teams. But that is generally their M.O.

The main reason I call us a more complete team is that we have a good offense. VT has a collection of some pretty good players on offense, but it is not a good offense. Their coaching and scheme leaves a little to be desired.

Last year, GT had a worse defense and VT had a better offense than this year, and still Groh managed to engineer a gameplan to largely shut down Stinespring (VT’s offensive coordinator).

Logan Thomas and David Wilson are good players. Especially David Wilson. He may be the best individual player we play against all year. (for those that do not know, he is VT’s running back, and the player who took the kick back last year to win the game).

He is an all around good running back, but has tremendous speed. I mean tremendous. He is just an athletic freak.

And VT likes to use him between the tackles in what is a decent power running game. Power run defense is our weakness, so I expect him to do some damage. VT hurt us in that area last year, and I expect the same this year. However, I don’t expect much more than 21 or 24 points.

So, that will be the challenge. Can we score 28 or so on offense, and then not give the game away elsewhere?

In 2008, despite a bad offensive performance for much of the day, we were about to get the ball back with 5 minutes left in a tie game, but an untimely personal foul gave VT’s offense new life. We cannot afford mistakes like that Thursday.

In 2010, we had a chance to win at the end, but we allowed a VT kickoff return TD with 2 minutes left to put them ahead 28-21. We cannot afford mistakes like that Thursday.

VT may have a slight talent edge, but only slight, if at all.

We have a clear edge in offensive coaching in my opinion, and we can match their defensive coaching (both are very good). If we can hold our own in special teams and overall mistakes like turnovers and penalties, then I like our chances.

I think we do. I think we play well, and get the win by a touchdown. GT 28, VT 21. Perfectly symmetrical revenge from last year.

Let’s Go Jackets.